Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis

• Expectation versus wishful thinking
• Dominance of mindsets
• Dynamics of information perception
• Preconception

Cognitive biases with data analysis

• Mistakes with the assessment of evidence
• Mistakes with the perception of cause and ef­fect
• Mistakes with the estimation of probabilities
• Blind spots

Mistakes with Intelligence reporting

• Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
• Basic principles of reporting

Typical decision making mistakes

• Why even intelligent people can make blatant and wrong decisions
• Lessons learned from completed CI projects (feedback and perfor­mance measurement)
• Deliberate and unconscious manipulation of results
• Basic principles of reporting

Methods to avoid typical Intelligence mistakes

• Analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)
• Mental tool kits
• Check lists